crude and bullions

GOLD: glittering. nearby one resistance to overcome and stand avobe of $1764 and can wait for another breakout area of res of $1800 and $1840 (Spot basis) to overcome to challengerecord high.

SILVER: waking up and waiting to seea breakout of $35.58/$35.78 area (spot basis) and steadiness above, this canboost it nicely.

CRUDE OIL: as per my last post ONLY crude hits stop in case of BRENT/SWEET spread or long position of WTI, it slipped to $95, again retested but ultimately taken out said res of $104, pointing towards $115-$118 followed by res $106 and $108, $111.

*Background remains supportive.

heading where:

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY

Market after FOMC:

As per my last thought posted here its going fine till now. USDINR about to reach final target for now.

Cude oil:  yet to make a leap rather retested the support of $77.50/70 area and now seems getting ready for a very near term breakout above $101.50 area(settlement to watch) and again res of $103.8/104 will be the challenged to breached for ashoot up for possible target towards $115 (markedas*) followed by a mild res$104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

Spread option is still looking fine . its within 12.3 to 10 till now.    

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

DOW(spot): 2011 high is now  facing the challenge.

GOLD: this move was due and given a solid breakout last night and pointing towards $1765, $1800, $1834/40. staying above and steadyness will challenge the record high.

SILVER: it was outshining gold for last few days. now to face res $33.70 and $35.50. breakout area as per continuation basis and spot basis is comming $36.50.

COPPER: Dr is supported abov $3.75, res $4.02, $4.20 and a range can consider within $3.75 to $4.20.

** market is risk, volatility making it riskier.

Outlook after 1st week of 2012

Outlook for USDINR, Lightsweet crude and Brent crude

INDICES, GOLD and SILVER

USDINR (spot): first nearby res 52.40 and convincingbreak and settlement as shown (CI1) witharrow will confirm a double top (of 1and 2 as shown) and tends to stronger areatowards 51.20(1^st target area) followed by 51.85. Secondly, anyconvincing break and staying below and settlement below of 51.20, which willconfirm a H&S formation, which may indicate towards 49.85 followed by fib38.2% at 50.10 (2^nd  or finaltarget on the basis of situation within 50.10-49.85 area) and 48.90 (finaltarget, which is also fib 50% .

BRENTCRUDE vs LS CRUDE (continuation base):

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

LS crude:formed a reverse H&S(showed as 1,2,3 and confirmation on res) and holdsabove with a +ve week on candle chart (Jan’12 contract) although nearby res$103.8.  a positive move is better optionfor future expectation.  If so, then anyconvincing breakout above $103.8/104, a shoot up can possible towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

BRENT: alikeLS crude it also seems +ve on chart(continuation basis) but ‘ve to face 1^sthurdle at res $116 as months back faced a false break out or bull trap (shownas ‘F’ and within a circle). If can breach above then next res is coming as$122.

DOW (spot):  alike cl, it has also making a reverse H$S, nearby res12430, and any convincing break higher likely to push towards 2011 hi of 12876(and a long ascending trend res @13130-160). If so better to keep in mind itsall time high is 14198 on 11/10/2007.

 S&P (spot):following dow and can complete a reverse H&S if capable to settle above1295 convincingly. If so  anda descendingres‘ll be @1308/10 and 2011 high of 1370.

NIFTY (spot):any convincing break above 4790 can push towards 4835/40 and follow through andgood settlement can push towards 5030 and 5100.

SENSEX (spot): convincingbreak above 16050 and follow through with good settlement can push towards17k/17100 followed by 16750.
GOLD: sustainingabove long term ascending sup line on weekly basis.
SILVER:naturally volatile as a speculative metal. Tested 2011 low of in the yearend.

Stillseeing specially precious is bullish in midterm and ferociously bullish in longterm. I’m waiting for getting a better entry point to avoid hit by volatility.

NB: Thisfor sharing thought and interest.

MARKET: DONE/OVERDONE, MATCH/MISMATCH

          MARKET:   DONE/OVERDONE,   MATCH/MISMATCH

The movement, mainly of indices seems a relief rally with support of euro zone debt deal.

Think better to wait n watch to get the direction from market for directional trade. Level based and intraday trade preferable.

Outlook:07.10.11

DOW: on 5th dow(spot) broken strong sup of 10600, hits a low of 10400, the near term decending trend channel sup but covered sharply, made a new day hi in last 40 mins of trading and settled at 10808 (400 points offlows). in the background +ve talk reg EU banks and repeated dialog by mr bernanke reg easing may boosted this movement despite the _ve global situation remains.
now to watch the decending trend channel res area to whach, which is coming @ 11240 at the same time US payroll and employment reports scheduled to release @ 018.00 hrs IST.
probablity of capping the upward move in this area.

GOLD: holds the sup of $1600 on 05th oct and again moving back to the potential res of $1680/82.
altough for mid to long term still its very much bullish but near term lower prices still can expect. nearby potential res area $1682 (extn $1702), suup $1600, $1580 (can’t be rulled out to get the area of $1530 again to retest). sideways ot lower till holding below potential res area of $1682-$1702.

SILVER: too much volatile but within a big range. ability of breach $30.32/34 on 5th oct, made a +ve day candle formation and with outside market sup, able to take out res of $31.5 towards potential res of $33.50.
for near term sideways to lower and a chance of retest of $26.30 till holding below the potential res of $33.50.

COPPER: dr. was a gentle counter and this is the first time it is showing this volatility and indicates the econ outlook. $3.33 is a key res today to watch, holding of this res give a hope to get copper towards $3 or lower but breaching and staying abov $3.33, next res will come @ $3.50.
NB: market is typically volatile, but market do the logical only. foreseeing the unforseen realy need to maintain stop always and obviously now when it is too volatile with big movement.

Outlook 07.09.11

We are passing historictime as both major economies of US and EU (as united) is in gloomy situationand possibly solution is far reach and can dampen global growth.

 As economic power is transforming and ongoing questionis arising with changing situation about USD as reserve currency, whichargument is hot now a days and individually 2^nd largest economyChina openly wished for Yuan to become a reserve currency (although they mayknow its not very easy to replace or a time taking process ).  Nigerian central Bank governor told yesterdayto Invest 5% To 10% of their reserves In Yuan‎(effect of china’s  long time effort on African countries).

In recent time we ‘ve seencentral banks coming openly to protect own currency which dampening safe heavenimage of some particular currencies like USD and CHF.  As an example SNB intervention yesterday madeit weaker for more than 700 pips against USD, possibly it was a historic movefor USDCHF.

GOLD: aforesaidreasons are insisting investors and hedgers including central banks to accumulategold as an alternative. So mid to long term gold will remain difficultly positive, currency war,regrouping of world political powers after fall of Soviet union, rising ofChina, cornered USA, indicating ancient reserve currency to glitter.

Correction is a part of themarket movement and healthy correction always is an opportunity and as price isin record high area and volatility is very high in all sectors so better tostay cautious.

Globex SPOT GOLD made a outsideday and engulfment yesterday, which indicate more lower prices ahead and onegood sup is $1812-24 and major support $1794/98.

SILVER: volatility increased today, like gold, silver also inuptrend. sup here is $40.50 and one major trend sup $40, below can attractdownward pressure while mcx dec silver major trend sup 62600 and any convincingbreak below can pull prices down towards 61k and 59800.

DJIA:  weak econ situation and lack of confidence ofany recovery, fear of 2^nd dip of recession supposed to take itlower. Looks became negative, forming secondary bullish channel which normallytends to break down. Nearby resistance 11650, 11800 and sup 10800 and 10600,convincing break below 10600 to move towards 10k and for a longer periodpossible target 8800.

NB:today US beige book, on tomorrow  Obama speechregarding plan for creating jobs, ECB and UK interest rate decision, ECBTrichet’s speech, Fed Bernanke’s speech can attract more volatility in allsector at the same time direction. Mostly market is waiting for FOMC on 20thand 21st Sept. 

Outlook 22.08.11

There is difference between 2008 and 2011 market and on the background economical situation. The main point was that time big commercial houses failed mainly in US which lead others to become slow, but this time in EU zone countries govt are may in pressure due to huge debt including US but one thing is very common that’s fear.

In 2008 central banks put fund to protect but employment and housing unable to improve mainly in US but only financial market.

Some EU countries are in huge debt, taking breath with ECB bailout fund with a precondition to reduce deficit and likely to impose more taxes on citizens.

Corporates started to slash its manpower from months back in US and possibly in some places of EU and People are concerned.

Even at 2008 n later China bought US and EU countries debt and now under pressure although; …….Joe Biden on Sunday rejected views that American power is waning and said Washington would never default and still the single best bet in the world, in terms of where to invest as per cnbc.com..…

Egypt like agitation by people is rising globally, conflict between countries remain same.

 All the countries are busy to protect their own currency and question about reserve currency and enough warning for a cold war state.

This weekend we’ve to cautiously watch what Mr. Bernanke is going to tell as market expectation is approx 50:50 condition regarding QE.

GOLD: all these points boosted gold historically and end is not visible yet. But any settlement above $1900 with a good day movement can push it to major psychological area of $2k.

SILVER:  the typical silver movement as sent a report on 08^th aug and now cleared it was a bear trap (in globex) as shown on that. Strength in silver is seems back and base has completed on $32/$33 area, nearby res $45.5and $47.5 and sup $42.50-$42.70.  Possibly we are going to get a sideways movement for few days within $47.5 and $50.5 and looks is challenging for a new record and according to extended fib it would be $59 and $78. 

Outlook 04th Aug’11

Global growth scenario darkening erasing hope of recovery and major equity indexes are correcting steadily and showing a possibility of downward trend is on the way at least for short to midterm although market is hoping for united approach of all govts and central banks. This time it may become bit difficult which may gold movement is suggesting.

GOLD: yesterday it made a record of $1675.9 (only a step far to reach $1700, long awaited target came earlier which expected till year end next expected areas are $1900 and $2300) and till now holding a narrow range of $1660-$1674 and showing more strength. From some sources words are coming as margin is going to be hiked and if so, it can trigger some liquidation and we‘ve to be cautious for near term but for mid to long the bullish trend‘ll be intact. Suggest to stay long with stop below $1658.

SILVER: it’s giving a bullish movement but in a different which sometimes looks like weakness. Yesterday it managed to settle above $41. What I’m thinking this movement can lead silver above its all time high of ($%0) which ‘ll be a very sharp and stiff. Suggest to stay long in silver keeping a stop $41.30.

              ___________________________________________________ 

NIFTY; an expectation

On daily basis spot nifty has given a double top confirmation (5750) from one angle and from another angle moving within a secondary bearish channel.

One suggests fast downward price movement and other suggest lower low and lower hi. From both angles can expect lower prices.

If we see last few days movement after giving the confirmation settling below 5750 on 14^th Jan’2011 unable to attract fall rather holds the area and moved within a range of 5625-5750.  On 25^th Jan broke resistance of 5750, hits nearer resistance of 5800, but unable to sustain and moved down and closed on sup of 5680 which indicates weakness.

Now what can expect, sup of 5580/85 (declining lower line of channel, ‘ll be lower with time) need to break instantly for a sharply downward move otherwise to be within a downward channel, bit sideways within a channel forming lower highs and lower lows, either way 5000/5100 seems achievable.

This downward price move is likely a balancing of value or cooling overpriced stocks in global scenario.

.

NIFTY; an expectation

On daily basis spot nifty has given a double top confirmation (5750) from one angle and from another angle moving within a secondary bearish channel.

One suggests fast downward price movement and other suggest lower low and lower hi. From both angles can expect lower prices.

If we see last few days movement after giving the confirmation settling below 5750 on 14^th Jan’2011 unable to attract fall rather holds the area and moved within a range of 5625-5750.  On 25^th Jan broke resistance of 5750, hits nearer resistance of 5800, but unable to sustain and moved down and closed on sup of 5680 which indicates weakness.

Now what can expect, sup of 5580/85 (declining lower line of channel, ‘ll be lower with time) need to break instantly for a sharply downward move otherwise to be within a downward channel, bit sideways within a channel forming lower highs and lower lows, either way 5000/5100 seems achievable.

This downward price move is likely a balancing of value or cooling overpriced stocks in global scenario.